Storm surge scenarios for Hamburg
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چکیده
Abstract A scenario for future storm surge heights for the tide gauge of Hamburg St. Pauli is constructed on the basis of results from a regional model for Cuxhaven. Under the A2 emission scenario, an increase of the mean annual maximum water level of about 0.1724 m appears possible and plausible for the time horizon of 2030. In Cuxhaven, an increase of 0.14 may be expected in this scenario. In 2085 the expected increase for St. Pauli is 0.6891 m. These values are uncertain, not only because of the employed emission scenarios but also because of a series of downscaling steps, which describe the chain of processes from increased emissions and local climate change impact.
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